Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Roope HintzPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:57Jack Eichel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (5), Adin Hill (1)2–1
- P219:17Roope Hintz Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (10), Jason Robertson (11)1–1
- P110:26Michael Amadio Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (2), Chandler Stephenson (9)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:26Michael Amadio Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (2), Chandler Stephenson (9)VGK 1 – 0 DAL · VGK 46% → 61% +16VGK 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P219:17Roope Hintz Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (10), Jason Robertson (11)VGK 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 29% → 53% +24DAL 29% → 53%+24 pts
- OT1:57Jack Eichel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (5), Adin Hill (1)VGK 2 – 1 DAL · VGK 49% → 94% +46VGK 49% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Fair odds
- DAL -122
- VGK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +32 Elo | DAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 11th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 4–312th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.