Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:55MacKenzie Weegar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P32:31A.J. Greer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (10), Connor Zary (7)1–1
- P113:53William Karlsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (3), Michael Amadio (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:53William Karlsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (3), Michael Amadio (8)VGK 1 – 0 CGY · VGK 47% → 63% +16VGK 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P32:31A.J. Greer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (10), Connor Zary (7)VGK 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 26% → 52% +25CGY 26% → 52%+25 pts
- OT4:55MacKenzie Weegar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 50% → 100% +50CGY 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 47%
- Fair odds
- CGY -115
- VGK +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −7 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +18 Elo | VGK 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 31 |
| 12th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 51.9%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 89.2%24th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.