Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P212:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (10), Cale Makar (25)1–3
- P212:03Mikael Backlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (9), Blake Coleman (6)1–2
- P210:10Ryan Johansen Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: none0–2
- P16:31Jonathan Drouin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (14), Nathan MacKinnon (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:31Jonathan Drouin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (14), Nathan MacKinnon (19)CGY 0 – 1 COL · COL 56% → 71% +14COL 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P210:10Ryan Johansen Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: noneCGY 0 – 2 COL · COL 74% → 88% +14COL 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P212:03Mikael Backlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (9), Blake Coleman (6)CGY 1 – 2 COL · CGY 12% → 26% +14CGY 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P212:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (10), Cale Makar (25)CGY 1 – 3 COL · COL 74% → 88% +14COL 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Fair odds
- COL -130
- CGY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | COL and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +4 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +87 Elo | COL 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.86th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 20th of 315–7 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.