Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints3
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Evgenii DadonovAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:21Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (5)7–4
- P37:28Mikael Backlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (6), Blake Coleman (5)6–4
- P32:22Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (4), Andrew Mangiapane (8)5–4
- P31:53Blake Coleman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (6), Rasmus Andersson (8)4–4
- P213:27Adam Ruzicka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (5), A.J. Greer (4)3–4
- P28:53Joe Pavelski Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (10), Jason Robertson (12)2–4
- P24:44Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (11), Evgenii Dadonov (4)2–3
- P20:43Yegor Sharangovich Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (10), Andrew Mangiapane (7)2–2
- P111:27Jason Robertson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (7)1–2
- P18:19A.J. Greer Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Dillon Dube (4), Adam Ruzicka (3)1–1
- P11:13Wyatt Johnston Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (10), Evgenii Dadonov (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:43Yegor Sharangovich Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (10), Andrew Mangiapane (7)CGY 2 – 2 DAL · CGY 28% → 45% +17CGY 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P24:44Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (11), Evgenii Dadonov (4)CGY 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 55% → 72% +18DAL 55% → 72%+18 pts
- P31:53Blake Coleman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (6), Rasmus Andersson (8)CGY 4 – 4 DAL · CGY 23% → 47% +24CGY 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P32:22Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (4), Andrew Mangiapane (8)CGY 5 – 4 DAL · CGY 47% → 72% +26CGY 47% → 72%+26 pts
- P37:28Mikael Backlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (6), Blake Coleman (5)CGY 6 – 4 DAL · CGY 77% → 94% +17CGY 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Fair odds
- DAL -128
- CGY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +73 Elo | DAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 92.0%5th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 25th of 314–7 | Road vs home | 4–415th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.