Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Joe PavelskiPoints1
JetsScoring summary
- P316:45Tyler Seguin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (7), Matt Duchene (11)2–0
- P212:54Joe Pavelski Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (10), Jason Robertson (13)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:54Joe Pavelski Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (10), Jason Robertson (13)DAL 1 – 0 WPG · DAL 46% → 67% +21DAL 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P316:45Tyler Seguin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (7), Matt Duchene (11)DAL 2 – 0 WPG · DAL 94% → >99% +6DAL 94% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- DAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +14 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +56 Elo | WPG 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.8% | Shot share | 53.1%7th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–2 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.