Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Tyler JohnsonAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P29:21Philipp Kurashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (10), Tyler Johnson (4)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:21Philipp Kurashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (10), Tyler Johnson (4)ANA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 54% → 73% +19CHI 54% → 73%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 59%
- Fair odds
- CHI -126
- ANA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −44 | −9 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 1.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +63 Elo | CHI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −1.030th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.1% | Shot share | 45.7%28th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Road vs home | 3–731st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.