Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Leo CarlssonPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:11Leo Carlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (9), Cam Fowler (10)2–3
- P310:43Sam Carrick Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P36:21Logan O'Connor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (25), Jonathan Drouin (5)0–3
- P217:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (4), Josh Manson (3)0–2
- P11:40Kurtis MacDermid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:40Kurtis MacDermid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (24)ANA 0 – 1 COL · COL 56% → 70% +14COL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P217:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (4), Josh Manson (3)ANA 0 – 2 COL · COL 76% → 90% +15COL 76% → 90%+15 pts
- P36:21Logan O'Connor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (25), Jonathan Drouin (5)ANA 0 – 3 COL · COL 95% → >99% +5COL 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P310:43Sam Carrick Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 3 COL · ANA <1% → 3% +3ANA <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P314:11Leo Carlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (9), Cam Fowler (10)ANA 2 – 3 COL · ANA <1% → 11% +10ANA <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Fair odds
- COL -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +83 Elo | COL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.76th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.9% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 9th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 8–22nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.