Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Josh MansonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Josh MansonPoints1
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Drew Doughty Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Talbot (1)1–4
- P314:22Trevor Moore Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (2)1–3
- P313:26Quinton Byfield Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (14), Anze Kopitar (10)1–2
- P29:03Quinton Byfield Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (8), Adrian Kempe (13)1–1
- P112:28Josh Manson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (19), Nathan MacKinnon (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:28Josh Manson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (19), Nathan MacKinnon (23)COL 1 – 0 LA · COL 42% → 58% +16COL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P29:03Quinton Byfield Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (8), Adrian Kempe (13)COL 1 – 1 LA · LA 37% → 57% +20LA 37% → 57%+20 pts
- P313:26Quinton Byfield Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (14), Anze Kopitar (10)COL 1 – 2 LA · LA 53% → 88% +35LA 53% → 88%+35 pts
- P314:22Trevor Moore Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (2)COL 1 – 3 LA · LA 90% → >99% +10LA 90% → >99%+10 pts
- P318:53Drew Doughty Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Talbot (1)COL 1 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Fair odds
- LA -147
- COL +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +19 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +74 Elo | LA 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.1% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.7%6th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 6th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.