Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Devon ToewsGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Devon ToewsPoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Leo Carlsson Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P210:22Alex Killorn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (5), Pavel Mintyukov (12)3–3
- P22:58Leo Carlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (5)3–2
- P119:17Devon Toews Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (18), Nathan MacKinnon (22)3–1
- P114:05Adam Henrique Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Strome (14), Frank Vatrano (9)2–1
- P18:59Bowen Byram Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Fredrik Olofsson (2), Josh Manson (2)2–0
- P10:36Bowen Byram Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (5), Ross Colton (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:36Bowen Byram Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (5), Ross Colton (5)COL 1 – 0 ANA · COL 47% → 61% +14COL 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P114:05Adam Henrique Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Strome (14), Frank Vatrano (9)COL 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 22% → 36% +14ANA 22% → 36%+14 pts
- P119:17Devon Toews Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (18), Nathan MacKinnon (22)COL 3 – 1 ANA · COL 65% → 80% +15COL 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P22:58Leo Carlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (5)COL 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 19% → 34% +15ANA 19% → 34%+15 pts
- P210:22Alex Killorn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (5), Pavel Mintyukov (12)COL 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 32% → 52% +20ANA 32% → 52%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 45%
- Fair odds
- ANA -113
- COL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | 0 | COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +36 Elo | COL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.8 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.626th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.0 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–4 | Road vs home | 3–931st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.