Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals2
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Nick FolignoPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Filip Forsberg Goal Backhand3–1
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Backhand3–1
- SO0:00Connor Bedard Goal Wrist Shot3–1
- SO0:00Gustav Nyquist Goal Wrist Shot3–1
- P212:59Ryan O'Reilly Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (16), Roman Josi (13)3–3
- P25:21Nick Foligno Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (4), Seth Jones (10)2–3
- P23:09Jason Dickinson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (8), Alex Vlasic (4)2–2
- P22:37Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (6), Dante Fabbro (4)2–1
- P22:11Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (10), Juuso Parssinen (2)1–1
- P15:57Nick Foligno Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:11Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (10), Juuso Parssinen (2)NSH 1 – 1 CHI · NSH 29% → 47% +17NSH 29% → 47%+17 pts
- P22:37Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (6), Dante Fabbro (4)NSH 2 – 1 CHI · NSH 47% → 65% +18NSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P23:09Jason Dickinson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (8), Alex Vlasic (4)NSH 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 35% → 53% +18CHI 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P25:21Nick Foligno Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (4), Seth Jones (10)NSH 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 53% → 71% +18CHI 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P212:59Ryan O'Reilly Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (16), Roman Josi (13)NSH 3 – 3 CHI · NSH 27% → 47% +20NSH 27% → 47%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 50%
- Fair odds
- CHI -117
- NSH +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH 0 Elo | NSH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −1.030th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 3–629th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.