Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Sabres- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Victor OlofssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P210:02Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P110:54Yakov Trenin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (5), Cole Smith (5)2–0
- P19:40Filip Forsberg Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:40Filip Forsberg Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 0 BUF · NSH 46% → 61% +16NSH 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P110:54Yakov Trenin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (5), Cole Smith (5)NSH 2 – 0 BUF · NSH 61% → 76% +14NSH 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P210:02Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 17% → 33% +16BUF 17% → 33%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Fair odds
- BUF -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BUF and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +30 Elo | BUF 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–6 | Road vs home | 5–513th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.