Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tyson JostGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Tyson JostPoints1
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals2
- Jaccob SlavinAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:24Tyson Jost Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Peyton Krebs (3)2–6
- P38:05Brady Skjei Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (7)1–6
- P34:08Casey Mittelstadt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (9), Henri Jokiharju (7)1–5
- P218:04Teuvo Teravainen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (10), Brent Burns (7)0–5
- P214:12Stefan Noesen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (11), Jaccob Slavin (11)0–4
- P21:06Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Brent Burns (6)0–3
- P116:36Jack Drury Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Jalen Chatfield (4)0–2
- P115:26Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (10), Jaccob Slavin (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:26Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (10), Jaccob Slavin (10)BUF 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 71% +16CAR 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P116:36Jack Drury Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Jalen Chatfield (4)BUF 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 71% → 84% +13CAR 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P21:06Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (9), Brent Burns (6)BUF 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 85% → 93% +8CAR 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P214:12Stefan Noesen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (11), Jaccob Slavin (11)BUF 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 96% → >99% +3CAR 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P218:04Teuvo Teravainen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (10), Brent Burns (7)BUF 0 – 5 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +1CAR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Fair odds
- CAR -129
- BUF +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +9 | BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +78 Elo | CAR 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 58.0%1st of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 87.3%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 20th of 315–8 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.