Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:42JJ Peterka Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (7), Zach Benson (5)4–6
- P34:38Jake Neighbours Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (10), Justin Faulk (11)3–6
- P213:28Brayden Schenn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (11), Kevin Hayes (6)3–5
- P213:04Kevin Hayes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (10), Brayden Schenn (6)3–4
- P210:53Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (15), Jordan Greenway (5)3–3
- P26:10Zach Benson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (6)2–3
- P113:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (4), Peyton Krebs (2)1–3
- P110:59Jake Neighbours Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (4), Pavel Buchnevich (9)0–3
- P15:02Brayden Schenn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (9), Robert Thomas (15)0–2
- P11:08Brandon Saad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Brandon Saad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (7)BUF 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 69% +14STL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P26:10Zach Benson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (6)BUF 2 – 3 STL · BUF 14% → 28% +14BUF 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P210:53Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (15), Jordan Greenway (5)BUF 3 – 3 STL · BUF 27% → 47% +19BUF 27% → 47%+19 pts
- P213:04Kevin Hayes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (10), Brayden Schenn (6)BUF 3 – 4 STL · STL 53% → 73% +20STL 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P213:28Brayden Schenn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (11), Kevin Hayes (6)BUF 3 – 5 STL · STL 74% → 88% +15STL 74% → 88%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Fair odds
- STL -121
- BUF +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +1 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 47.5%25th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%10th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 20th of 315–7 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.