New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists3
- Mathew BarzalPoints4
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:46Mathew Barzal Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (16)5–4
- P319:57Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (6), Brent Burns (5)4–4
- P36:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Noah Dobson (15), Mathew Barzal (16)4–3
- P30:39Jack Drury Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (7), Martin Necas (9)3–3
- P218:03Pierre Engvall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (15), Noah Dobson (14)3–2
- P215:59Simon Holmstrom Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (7)2–2
- P22:01Jordan Staal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (6), Jaccob Slavin (9)1–2
- P118:00Bo Horvat Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mathew Barzal (14), Anders Lee (3)1–1
- P18:08Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (10), Dmitry Orlov (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:03Pierre Engvall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (15), Noah Dobson (14)NYI 3 – 2 CAR · NYI 46% → 70% +23NYI 46% → 70%+23 pts
- P30:39Jack Drury Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (7), Martin Necas (9)NYI 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 29% → 53% +25CAR 29% → 53%+25 pts
- P36:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Noah Dobson (15), Mathew Barzal (16)NYI 4 – 3 CAR · NYI 47% → 76% +29NYI 47% → 76%+29 pts
- P319:57Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (6), Brent Burns (5)NYI 4 – 4 CAR · CAR 0% → 50% +50CAR 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:46Mathew Barzal Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (16)NYI 5 – 4 CAR · NYI 49% → 97% +48NYI 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Fair odds
- CAR -127
- NYI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +18 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.43 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +67 Elo | CAR 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 87.9%30th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.