New York Rangers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists3
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:10Ryan Lindgren Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (11), Jonny Brodzinski (2)4–3
- P29:11Vincent Trocheck Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (12), Adam Fox (10)3–3
- P28:52Chris Kreider Goal (14) Batted, assists: Vincent Trocheck (14), Adam Fox (9)2–3
- P27:28Colton Sissons Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (2)1–3
- P20:31Jacob Trouba Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (13), Jonny Brodzinski (1)1–2
- P115:52Roman Josi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (14), Ryan O'Reilly (10)0–2
- P16:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Foudy (3), Philip Tomasino (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Foudy (3), Philip Tomasino (7)NYR 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 69% +15NSH 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P27:28Colton Sissons Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (2)NYR 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 72% → 86% +14NSH 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P28:52Chris Kreider Goal (14) Batted, assists: Vincent Trocheck (14), Adam Fox (9)NYR 2 – 3 NSH · NYR 14% → 28% +14NYR 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P29:11Vincent Trocheck Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (12), Adam Fox (10)NYR 3 – 3 NSH · NYR 28% → 47% +19NYR 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P35:10Ryan Lindgren Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (11), Jonny Brodzinski (2)NYR 4 – 3 NSH · NYR 48% → 75% +27NYR 48% → 75%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Fair odds
- NSH -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +10 Elo | NSH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.9 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3149.0% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 2nd of 319–3 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.