St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Oskar SundqvistGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Oskar SundqvistPoints1
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Nikita ZaitsevAssists2
- Nikita ZaitsevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:31Oskar Sundqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (6)1–3
- P214:53Jason Dickinson Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Nikita Zaitsev (2), Connor Murphy (3)0–3
- P19:20Alex Vlasic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (1), MacKenzie Entwistle (3)0–2
- P14:43Anthony Beauvillier Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Nikita Zaitsev (1), Cole Guttman (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:43Anthony Beauvillier Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Nikita Zaitsev (1), Cole Guttman (1)STL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 58% → 72% +14CHI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P19:20Alex Vlasic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (1), MacKenzie Entwistle (3)STL 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 73% → 84% +12CHI 73% → 84%+12 pts
- P214:53Jason Dickinson Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Nikita Zaitsev (2), Connor Murphy (3)STL 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 90% → 97% +7CHI 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P316:31Oskar Sundqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (6)STL 1 – 3 CHI · STL <1% → <1% +0STL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 56%
- Fair odds
- CHI -142
- STL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +44 Elo | CHI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.930th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 45.4%28th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%19th of 31 |
| 24th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 23rd of 315–8 | Road vs home | 4–728th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.