St. Louis Blues at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Torey KrugAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals2
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists2
- Egor ChinakhovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:56Alexandre Texier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (6)2–5
- P317:38Robert Thomas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (8), Torey Krug (11)2–4
- P312:21Yegor Chinakhov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P36:26Yegor Chinakhov Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (7), Dmitri Voronkov (9)1–3
- P117:01Adam Fantilli Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (5), Emil Bemstrom (3)1–2
- P114:36Robert Thomas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (11)1–1
- P11:42Kirill Marchenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (8), Yegor Chinakhov (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:42Kirill Marchenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (8), Yegor Chinakhov (3)STL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 65% +14CBJ 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P114:36Robert Thomas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (11)STL 1 – 1 CBJ · STL 33% → 50% +16STL 33% → 50%+16 pts
- P117:01Adam Fantilli Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (5), Emil Bemstrom (3)STL 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 67% +17CBJ 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P36:26Yegor Chinakhov Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (7), Dmitri Voronkov (9)STL 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 78% → 94% +16CBJ 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P312:21Yegor Chinakhov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: noneSTL 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 98% → >99% +2CBJ 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 50%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -102
- STL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +9 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 31 |
| 27th of 3145.9% | Shot share | 46.8%26th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 31 |
| 20th of 315–7 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.