Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Phillip DanaultGoals2
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Phillip DanaultPoints2
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Johnny GaudreauPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Drew Doughty Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (11), Adrian Kempe (15)4–3
- P36:38Arthur Kaliyev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (2), Vladislav Gavrikov (6)3–3
- P35:08Phillip Danault Goal (6) Poke, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (5), Kevin Fiala (15)2–3
- P30:23Phillip Danault Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (7), Trevor Moore (9)1–3
- P213:03Mathieu Olivier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (4), Adam Fantilli (7)0–3
- P25:24Johnny Gaudreau Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P19:07Kirill Marchenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (3), Johnny Gaudreau (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:07Kirill Marchenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (3), Johnny Gaudreau (11)LA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 69% +15CBJ 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P25:24Johnny Gaudreau Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 71% → 85% +14CBJ 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P35:08Phillip Danault Goal (6) Poke, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (5), Kevin Fiala (15)LA 2 – 3 CBJ · LA 6% → 22% +15LA 6% → 22%+15 pts
- P36:38Arthur Kaliyev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (2), Vladislav Gavrikov (6)LA 3 – 3 CBJ · LA 21% → 48% +28LA 21% → 48%+28 pts
- OT0:33Drew Doughty Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (11), Adrian Kempe (15)LA 4 – 3 CBJ · LA 49% → 91% +42LA 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 50%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -117
- LA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | 0 | LA: Pheonix Copley: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +3 Elo | LA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.3% | Shot share | 46.9%26th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%14th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 1st of 317–0 | Road vs home | 6–718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.