Boston Bruins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Matthew PoitrasGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists1
- John BeecherPoints1
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists2
- Egor ChinakhovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:40John Beecher Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (4), Trent Frederic (4)2–5
- P313:41Justin Danforth Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (4), Boone Jenner (5)1–5
- P38:24Matthew Poitras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (11), Danton Heinen (4)1–4
- P34:51Kirill Marchenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (4), Patrik Laine (2)0–4
- P216:42Yegor Chinakhov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P25:38Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (3), Cole Sillinger (8)0–2
- P115:52Dmitri Voronkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:52Dmitri Voronkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (2)BOS 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 66% +17CBJ 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P25:38Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (3), Cole Sillinger (8)BOS 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 83% +15CBJ 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P216:42Yegor Chinakhov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 96% +8CBJ 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P34:51Kirill Marchenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (4), Patrik Laine (2)BOS 0 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 98% → >99% +1CBJ 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P38:24Matthew Poitras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (11), Danton Heinen (4)BOS 1 – 4 CBJ · BOS <1% → <1% +1BOS <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -103
- CBJ +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +46 Elo | BOS 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.0 | Margin | −0.725th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–4 | Road vs home | 4–622nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.