Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Patrik LainePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:03Gustav Lindstrom Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (12)4–2
- P317:03Joel Armia Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (11), Justin Barron (3)3–2
- P214:08Cole Caufield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3), Juraj Slafkovsky (5)2–2
- P29:47Yegor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (7), Zach Werenski (15)1–2
- P27:36Alex Newhook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (6), Nick Suzuki (12)1–1
- P23:40Patrik Laine Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:40Patrik Laine Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 71% +18CBJ 54% → 71%+18 pts
- P27:36Alex Newhook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (6), Nick Suzuki (12)MTL 1 – 1 CBJ · MTL 28% → 46% +19MTL 28% → 46%+19 pts
- P29:47Yegor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (7), Zach Werenski (15)MTL 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 73% +19CBJ 53% → 73%+19 pts
- P214:08Cole Caufield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3), Juraj Slafkovsky (5)MTL 2 – 2 CBJ · MTL 26% → 47% +21MTL 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P317:03Joel Armia Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (11), Justin Barron (3)MTL 3 – 2 CBJ · MTL 49% → 95% +46MTL 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -121
- MTL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +27 Elo | CBJ 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.