Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Johnny GaudreauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P28:54Boone Jenner Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (17), Johnny Gaudreau (10)2–4
- P25:16Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (13), Justin Danforth (5)2–3
- P115:36Dmitri Voronkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P114:53Patrik Laine Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (9), Zach Werenski (16)2–1
- P111:08Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (4), Drake Batherson (7)2–0
- P18:43Claude Giroux Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Artem Zub (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:43Claude Giroux Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Artem Zub (3)OTT 1 – 0 CBJ · OTT 46% → 61% +16OTT 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P111:08Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (4), Drake Batherson (7)OTT 2 – 0 CBJ · OTT 62% → 76% +14OTT 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P114:53Patrik Laine Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (9), Zach Werenski (16)OTT 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 23% → 37% +15CBJ 23% → 37%+15 pts
- P115:36Dmitri Voronkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 37% → 54% +17CBJ 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P25:16Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (13), Justin Danforth (5)OTT 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 72% +18CBJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -121
- OTT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +22 Elo | CBJ 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 15th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 5–722nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.