Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Aleksander BarkovAssists3
- Aleksander BarkovPoints3
SenatorsScoring summary
- P316:32Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none5–0
- P311:59Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (7)4–0
- P27:09Sam Bennett Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (14), Brandon Montour (1)3–0
- P25:59Sam Reinhart Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: Sam Bennett (1), Aleksander Barkov (13)2–0
- P11:28Sam Reinhart Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (15), Aleksander Barkov (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:28Sam Reinhart Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (15), Aleksander Barkov (12)FLA 1 – 0 OTT · FLA 45% → 60% +15FLA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P25:59Sam Reinhart Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: Sam Bennett (1), Aleksander Barkov (13)FLA 2 – 0 OTT · FLA 65% → 81% +16FLA 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P27:09Sam Bennett Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (14), Brandon Montour (1)FLA 3 – 0 OTT · FLA 82% → 92% +10FLA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P311:59Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (7)FLA 4 – 0 OTT · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P316:32Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneFLA 5 – 0 OTT · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Fair odds
- OTT -120
- FLA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −4 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +21 Elo | OTT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.4% | Shot share | 52.5%9th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Road vs home | 4–622nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.