Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Mathieu OlivierAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals3
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints3
Scoring summary
- P37:46Brad Marchand Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (11), Charlie McAvoy (14)1–3
- P35:37Brad Marchand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (13), James van Riemsdyk (11)1–2
- P31:56Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (5), Charlie Coyle (11)1–1
- P219:25Boone Jenner Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (4), Zach Werenski (18)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:25Boone Jenner Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (4), Zach Werenski (18)CBJ 1 – 0 BOS · CBJ 49% → 72% +24CBJ 49% → 72%+24 pts
- P31:56Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (5), Charlie Coyle (11)CBJ 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 26% → 51% +25BOS 26% → 51%+25 pts
- P35:37Brad Marchand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (13), James van Riemsdyk (11)CBJ 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 51% → 78% +27BOS 51% → 78%+27 pts
- P37:46Brad Marchand Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (11), Charlie McAvoy (14)CBJ 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 80% → 95% +15BOS 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- CBJ +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.1 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +49 Elo | BOS 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.95th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 92.4%2nd of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–9 | Road vs home | 8–22nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.