Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Calle JarnkrokAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:52Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (22)4–3
- P319:54Auston Matthews Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (16), John Tavares (14)3–3
- P313:10Trent Frederic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (4), Morgan Geekie (4)3–2
- P32:11Max Domi Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nicholas Robertson (3), Calle Jarnkrok (7)2–2
- P212:06Auston Matthews Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (17), Matthew Knies (5)2–1
- P27:31Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (21), Jake DeBrusk (6)2–0
- P110:44David Pastrnak Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Carlo (5), Hampus Lindholm (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:06Auston Matthews Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (17), Matthew Knies (5)BOS 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 16% → 32% +16TOR 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P32:11Max Domi Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nicholas Robertson (3), Calle Jarnkrok (7)BOS 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 27% → 53% +25TOR 27% → 53%+25 pts
- P313:10Trent Frederic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (4), Morgan Geekie (4)BOS 3 – 2 TOR · BOS 48% → 85% +37BOS 48% → 85%+37 pts
- P319:54Auston Matthews Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (16), John Tavares (14)BOS 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 0% → 50% +50TOR 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:52Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (22)BOS 4 – 3 TOR · BOS 50% → >99% +50BOS 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -121
- BOS +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +2 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 7th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.