Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints1
Maple Leafs- Noah GregorGoals1
- Noah GregorPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Noah Gregor Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Sam Reinhart Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Auston Matthews Goal Backhand1–2
- P212:54Noah Gregor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:29Kevin Stenlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (1), Aaron Ekblad (1)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:29Kevin Stenlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (1), Aaron Ekblad (1)FLA 1 – 0 TOR · FLA 43% → 59% +17FLA 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P212:54Noah Gregor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 35% → 56% +21TOR 35% → 56%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -142
- FLA +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −5 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +42 Elo | TOR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 11th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.