Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals2
- Tye KartyeAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints2
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals3
- Auston MatthewsAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mitchell Marner Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Auston Matthews Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P313:24Jared McCann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (7), Justin Schultz (7)3–3
- P36:15Eeli Tolvanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (4), Adam Larsson (5)2–3
- P216:01Mitchell Marner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (2)1–3
- P23:37Jared McCann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (13), Jordan Eberle (9)1–2
- P20:21Mitchell Marner Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (9), Conor Timmins (1)0–2
- P16:34Mitchell Marner Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (16), Auston Matthews (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:34Mitchell Marner Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (16), Auston Matthews (8)SEA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 56% → 70% +14TOR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P23:37Jared McCann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (13), Jordan Eberle (9)SEA 1 – 2 TOR · SEA 15% → 28% +13SEA 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P216:01Mitchell Marner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (2)SEA 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 75% → 89% +14TOR 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P36:15Eeli Tolvanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (4), Adam Larsson (5)SEA 2 – 3 TOR · SEA 6% → 20% +15SEA 6% → 20%+15 pts
- P313:24Jared McCann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (7), Justin Schultz (7)SEA 3 – 3 TOR · SEA 12% → 48% +35SEA 12% → 48%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -127
- SEA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +71 Elo | TOR 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.418th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 50.0%14th of 31 |
| 26th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 24th of 314–7 | Road vs home | 6–411th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.