San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:37Pavel Zacha Goal (8) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (20), Charlie McAvoy (12)0–3
- P28:10Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (10), David Pastrnak (19)0–2
- P21:39Danton Heinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:39Danton Heinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (6)SJ 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 72% +17BOS 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P28:10Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (10), David Pastrnak (19)SJ 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 73% → 87% +14BOS 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P36:37Pavel Zacha Goal (8) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (20), Charlie McAvoy (12)SJ 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 95% → >99% +4BOS 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -131
- SJ +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −9 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +94 Elo | BOS 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.6 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.5 | Margin | +0.86th of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.9% | Shot share | 49.7%19th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 92.1%2nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–9 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.