Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- Kent JohnsonAssists2
- Adam FantilliPoints3
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals2
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints4
Scoring summary
- P311:51Bo Horvat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (18), Samuel Bolduc (1)3–7
- P311:31Bo Horvat Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Julien Gauthier (3)3–6
- P35:33Mathew Barzal Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (14)3–5
- P31:28Adam Fantilli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (2)3–4
- P219:19Kyle Palmieri Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (9), Mathew Barzal (17)2–4
- P218:51Mathew Barzal Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (3), Mike Reilly (2)2–3
- P214:30Cal Clutterbuck Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (2), Casey Cizikas (5)2–2
- P210:11Adam Fantilli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (4), Zach Werenski (19)2–1
- P25:56Emil Bemstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (8), Kent Johnson (3)1–1
- P14:00Pierre Engvall Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:56Emil Bemstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (8), Kent Johnson (3)CBJ 1 – 1 NYI · CBJ 28% → 46% +18CBJ 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P210:11Adam Fantilli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (4), Zach Werenski (19)CBJ 2 – 1 NYI · CBJ 46% → 66% +20CBJ 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P214:30Cal Clutterbuck Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (2), Casey Cizikas (5)CBJ 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 32% → 54% +22NYI 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P218:51Mathew Barzal Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (3), Mike Reilly (2)CBJ 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 53% → 76% +22NYI 53% → 76%+22 pts
- P31:28Adam Fantilli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (2)CBJ 3 – 4 NYI · CBJ 8% → 23% +15CBJ 8% → 23%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 58%
- Fair odds
- NYI -125
- CBJ +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +14 | CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +57 Elo | NYI 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 44.4%30th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 31st of 312–10 | Road vs home | 3–831st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.