New York Islanders at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Julien GauthierGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Julien GauthierPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:36Carter Verhaeghe Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (5), Aaron Ekblad (2)4–3
- P33:43Julien Gauthier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (11)4–2
- P213:14Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9)3–2
- P29:12Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Julien Gauthier (2), Bo Horvat (10)3–1
- P24:37Pierre Engvall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (4), Brock Nelson (8)2–1
- P113:42Sam Reinhart Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (12), Brandon Montour (2)1–1
- P112:36Anders Lee Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Palmieri (8), Brock Nelson (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:42Sam Reinhart Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (12), Brandon Montour (2)NYI 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 39% → 56% +16FLA 39% → 56%+16 pts
- P24:37Pierre Engvall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (4), Brock Nelson (8)NYI 2 – 1 FLA · NYI 45% → 64% +19NYI 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P29:12Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Julien Gauthier (2), Bo Horvat (10)NYI 3 – 1 FLA · NYI 65% → 82% +16NYI 65% → 82%+16 pts
- P213:14Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9)NYI 3 – 2 FLA · FLA 16% → 33% +17FLA 16% → 33%+17 pts
- P33:43Julien Gauthier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (11)NYI 4 – 2 FLA · NYI 73% → 91% +17NYI 73% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Fair odds
- FLA -130
- NYI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +85 Elo | FLA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.4% | Shot share | 54.9%2nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.6%8th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 18th of 315–6 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.