Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Aleksander BarkovPoints2
Canadiens- Johnathan KovacevicGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Johnathan KovacevicPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:49Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (8), Nick Cousins (3)5–1
- P39:30Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (12), Jake Evans (5)4–1
- P35:49Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (8), Evan Rodrigues (11)4–0
- P33:12Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (13), Aleksander Barkov (15)3–0
- P30:08Sam Bennett Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (8)2–0
- P27:07Aleksander Barkov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:07Aleksander Barkov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 0 MTL · FLA 50% → 69% +19FLA 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P30:08Sam Bennett Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (8)FLA 2 – 0 MTL · FLA 74% → 90% +16FLA 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P33:12Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (13), Aleksander Barkov (15)FLA 3 – 0 MTL · FLA 92% → 98% +6FLA 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P35:49Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (8), Evan Rodrigues (11)FLA 4 – 0 MTL · FLA 99% → >99% +1FLA 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P39:30Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (12), Jake Evans (5)FLA 4 – 1 MTL · MTL <1% → <1% +0MTL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Fair odds
- FLA -101
- MTL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +30 Elo | FLA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 45.6%28th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 12th of 316–6 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.