San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- William EklundPoints3
Islanders- Mike ReillyGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists2
- Mike ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:55William Eklund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (11)5–4
- P318:30Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (6), Alexander Barabanov (1)4–4
- P316:49Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (10), William Eklund (5)3–4
- P311:55Kevin Labanc Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Okhotiuk (6)2–4
- P38:27Ryan Pulock Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (1), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (8)1–4
- P35:17Mike Reilly Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (2)1–3
- P25:27Brock Nelson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (17), Bo Horvat (13)1–2
- P112:19Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (4)1–1
- P19:28Julien Gauthier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1), Bo Horvat (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:28Julien Gauthier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1), Bo Horvat (12)SJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 56% → 70% +15NYI 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P112:19Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (4)SJ 1 – 1 NYI · SJ 29% → 45% +15SJ 29% → 45%+15 pts
- P25:27Brock Nelson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (17), Bo Horvat (13)SJ 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 55% → 72% +18NYI 55% → 72%+18 pts
- P318:30Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (6), Alexander Barabanov (1)SJ 4 – 4 NYI · SJ <1% → 49% +48SJ <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT4:55William Eklund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (11)SJ 5 – 4 NYI · SJ 50% → 100% +50SJ 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Fair odds
- NYI -127
- SJ +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −9 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +69 Elo | NYI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 3.418th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.6% | Shot share | 44.1%30th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%7th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–11 | Road vs home | 3–731st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.