San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jacob MacDonaldGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Ryan CarpenterPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals3
- Jacob TroubaAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:50Alexander Barabanov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Calen Addison (10), Tomas Hertl (14)5–6
- P314:38Fabian Zetterlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (9), Anthony Duclair (3)4–6
- P313:04K'Andre Miller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (20), Jacob Trouba (10)3–6
- P34:41Artemi Panarin Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Vincent Trocheck (16), Jonny Brodzinski (4)3–5
- P216:03Will Cuylle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bonino (2), Jacob Trouba (9)3–4
- P29:16Jacob MacDonald Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (3), Mike Hoffman (3)3–3
- P116:42Mika Zibanejad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (8), Jonny Brodzinski (3)2–3
- P112:55Artemi Panarin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (15), Alexis Lafrenière (7)2–2
- P112:21Ryan Carpenter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (2)2–1
- P18:44Artemi Panarin Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13), Adam Fox (12)1–1
- P13:50Anthony Duclair Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Burroughs (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:21Ryan Carpenter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (2)SJ 2 – 1 NYR · SJ 47% → 63% +16SJ 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P112:55Artemi Panarin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (15), Alexis Lafrenière (7)SJ 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 37% → 53% +16NYR 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P116:42Mika Zibanejad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (8), Jonny Brodzinski (3)SJ 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 53% → 69% +16NYR 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P29:16Jacob MacDonald Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (3), Mike Hoffman (3)SJ 3 – 3 NYR · SJ 29% → 48% +19SJ 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P216:03Will Cuylle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bonino (2), Jacob Trouba (9)SJ 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 52% → 73% +22NYR 52% → 73%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Fair odds
- NYR -113
- SJ +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +88 Elo | NYR 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.8 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.3 | Margin | +0.96th of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.4% | Shot share | 48.3%22nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 92.1%4th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 31st of 311–10 | Road vs home | 6–24th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.