San Jose Sharks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jacob MacDonaldGoals2
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints3
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Simon NemecAssists2
- Simon NemecPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42William Eklund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Carpenter (4), Tomas Hertl (13)6–3
- P313:38Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none5–3
- P312:58Ondrej Palat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (18), Simon Nemec (2)4–3
- P35:07Anthony Duclair Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (8)4–2
- P32:56Jack Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P29:47Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (7)3–1
- P22:51Jacob MacDonald Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Benning (2), Justin Bailey (2)2–1
- P113:21Dawson Mercer Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (1), Alexander Holtz (4)1–1
- P12:10Jacob MacDonald Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (4), Ty Emberson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:21Dawson Mercer Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (1), Alexander Holtz (4)SJ 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 39% → 56% +16NJ 39% → 56%+16 pts
- P22:51Jacob MacDonald Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Benning (2), Justin Bailey (2)SJ 2 – 1 NJ · SJ 45% → 63% +18SJ 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P29:47Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (7)SJ 3 – 1 NJ · SJ 65% → 82% +16SJ 65% → 82%+16 pts
- P32:56Jack Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 10% → 28% +18NJ 10% → 28%+18 pts
- P35:07Anthony Duclair Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (8)SJ 4 – 2 NJ · SJ 74% → 92% +17SJ 74% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 63%
- Fair odds
- NJ -130
- SJ +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −11 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +90 Elo | NJ 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.6 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 31st of 3140.0% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–10 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.