Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- William KarlssonPoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48William Karlsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (4)6–3
- P219:42Michael Amadio Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (10), Ivan Barbashev (6)5–3
- P212:18Keegan Kolesar Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (8), Kaedan Korczak (5)4–3
- P211:51Jonathan Marchessault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (13), Jack Eichel (18)3–3
- P29:42Jack Eichel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (5), Mark Stone (15)2–3
- P117:11Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (7), Justin Faulk (12)1–3
- P110:33Kevin Hayes Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Torey Krug (10), Jordan Kyrou (12)1–2
- P19:20Jake Neighbours Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (17)1–1
- P18:03Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (6), Keegan Kolesar (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:03Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (6), Keegan Kolesar (3)VGK 1 – 0 STL · VGK 46% → 61% +15VGK 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P19:20Jake Neighbours Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (17)VGK 1 – 1 STL · STL 39% → 54% +16STL 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P211:51Jonathan Marchessault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (13), Jack Eichel (18)VGK 3 – 3 STL · VGK 27% → 47% +20VGK 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P212:18Keegan Kolesar Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (8), Kaedan Korczak (5)VGK 4 – 3 STL · VGK 47% → 68% +21VGK 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P219:42Michael Amadio Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (10), Ivan Barbashev (6)VGK 5 – 3 STL · VGK 71% → 88% +17VGK 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -120
- VGK +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +3 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.0 | Margin | +0.117th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 91.8%4th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 11th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 6–24th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.