Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints3
Canucks- J.T. MillerAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:01Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (23), Brock Boeser (10)4–1
- P30:16Brett Howden Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (10), Michael Amadio (10)4–0
- P211:27William Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (15), Alex Pietrangelo (9)3–0
- P116:18Jack Eichel Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (3), Nicolas Hague (3)2–0
- P14:46Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (14), Mark Stone (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:46Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (14), Mark Stone (14)VGK 1 – 0 VAN · VGK 45% → 60% +15VGK 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P116:18Jack Eichel Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (3), Nicolas Hague (3)VGK 2 – 0 VAN · VGK 62% → 77% +15VGK 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P211:27William Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (15), Alex Pietrangelo (9)VGK 3 – 0 VAN · VGK 83% → 93% +10VGK 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P30:16Brett Howden Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (10), Michael Amadio (10)VGK 4 – 0 VAN · VGK 97% → >99% +3VGK 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P34:01Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (23), Brock Boeser (10)VGK 4 – 1 VAN · VAN <1% → 2% +2VAN <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 57%
- Fair odds
- VAN -124
- VGK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +11 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +46 Elo | VAN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +1.51st of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 92.0%5th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 14th of 316–6 | Road vs home | 8–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.