Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:03Jonathan Marchessault Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (5), William Karlsson (12)1–4
- P316:46Tom Wilson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (3), John Carlson (13)1–3
- P30:49Mark Stone Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (17), Ivan Barbashev (4)0–3
- P27:56Jack Eichel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (3)0–2
- P18:53Jonathan Marchessault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (16), Logan Thompson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:53Jonathan Marchessault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (16), Logan Thompson (2)WSH 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P27:56Jack Eichel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (3)WSH 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 72% → 86% +14VGK 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P30:49Mark Stone Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (17), Ivan Barbashev (4)WSH 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 91% → 98% +6VGK 91% → 98%+6 pts
- P316:46Tom Wilson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (3), John Carlson (13)WSH 1 – 3 VGK · WSH <1% → <1% +0WSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P318:03Jonathan Marchessault Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (5), William Karlsson (12)WSH 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −15 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +45 Elo | VGK 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +1.04th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.0% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 92.7%1st of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 8–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.