St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Colton ParaykoAssists2
- Colton ParaykoPoints2
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:38Pavel Buchnevich Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (16), Colton Parayko (4)2–1
- P312:58Jack Eichel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (11), Jonathan Marchessault (6)1–1
- P119:39Alexey Toropchenko Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Oskar Sundqvist (9)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:39Alexey Toropchenko Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Oskar Sundqvist (9)STL 1 – 0 VGK · STL 45% → 63% +18STL 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P312:58Jack Eichel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (11), Jonathan Marchessault (6)STL 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 15% → 52% +36VGK 15% → 52%+36 pts
- OT0:38Pavel Buchnevich Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (16), Colton Parayko (4)STL 2 – 1 VGK · STL 48% → 91% +42STL 48% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -125
- STL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +55 Elo | VGK 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.03rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 92.7%1st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314–7 | Road vs home | 9–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.