New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:52Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (2)0–4
- P25:35Tom Wilson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P21:43Anthony Mantha Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (6), Rasmus Sandin (6)0–2
- P10:43Sonny Milano Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (4), John Carlson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:43Sonny Milano Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (4), John Carlson (14)NYR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 54% → 68% +14WSH 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P21:43Anthony Mantha Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (6), Rasmus Sandin (6)NYR 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 71% → 84% +13WSH 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:35Tom Wilson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 85% → 94% +8WSH 85% → 94%+8 pts
- P211:52Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (2)NYR 0 – 4 WSH · WSH 95% → 99% +3WSH 95% → 99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -120
- NYR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +17 Elo | WSH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.7% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3110–4 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.