Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints2
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P313:47Roope Hintz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (16), Joe Pavelski (14)4–4
- P39:08Dylan Strome Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (3), Alex Ovechkin (10)3–4
- P31:51Roope Hintz Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jamie Benn (13), Jason Robertson (15)3–3
- P214:19Mason Marchment Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (14)2–3
- P27:14Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Phillips (4), Aliaksei Protas (8)1–3
- P24:31Dylan Strome Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (6), Trevor van Riemsdyk (5)1–2
- P115:38Tyler Seguin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (3), Miro Heiskanen (15)1–1
- P17:11Aliaksei Protas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (6), Nick Jensen (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:38Tyler Seguin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (3), Miro Heiskanen (15)DAL 1 – 1 WSH · DAL 26% → 42% +15DAL 26% → 42%+15 pts
- P24:31Dylan Strome Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (6), Trevor van Riemsdyk (5)DAL 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 57% → 75% +17WSH 57% → 75%+17 pts
- P31:51Roope Hintz Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jamie Benn (13), Jason Robertson (15)DAL 3 – 3 WSH · DAL 21% → 45% +23DAL 21% → 45%+23 pts
- P39:08Dylan Strome Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (3), Alex Ovechkin (10)DAL 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 54% → 83% +29WSH 54% → 83%+29 pts
- P313:47Roope Hintz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (16), Joe Pavelski (14)DAL 4 – 4 WSH · DAL 11% → 47% +36DAL 11% → 47%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 61%
- Fair odds
- WSH -148
- DAL +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +14 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +78 Elo | WSH 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.3% | Shot share | 47.5%25th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%12th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 4th of 318–5 | Road vs home | 7–511th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.