Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals2
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:01Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (11), Jacob Markstrom (2)3–4
- P317:19MacKenzie Weegar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (10)3–3
- P31:49Mason Marchment Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P119:00Mason Marchment Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (12), Tyler Seguin (9)2–2
- P115:30Noah Hanifin Goal (5) Batted, assists: Blake Coleman (7), Mikael Backlund (7)1–2
- P18:02Chris Tanev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (9), Dennis Gilbert (2)1–1
- P14:51Thomas Harley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (11), Jason Robertson (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:30Noah Hanifin Goal (5) Batted, assists: Blake Coleman (7), Mikael Backlund (7)DAL 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 54% → 70% +16CGY 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P119:00Mason Marchment Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (12), Tyler Seguin (9)DAL 2 – 2 CGY · DAL 30% → 46% +17DAL 30% → 46%+17 pts
- P31:49Mason Marchment Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneDAL 3 – 2 CGY · DAL 48% → 73% +25DAL 48% → 73%+25 pts
- P317:19MacKenzie Weegar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (10)DAL 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 4% → 51% +47CGY 4% → 51%+47 pts
- OT1:01Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (11), Jacob Markstrom (2)DAL 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 51% → 93% +41CGY 51% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 52%
- Fair odds
- CGY -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +17 Elo | CGY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Road vs home | 4–413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.