Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Victor HedmanGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Victor HedmanPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Joe PavelskiAssists2
- Joe PavelskiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:26Sam Steel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Esa Lindell (7)1–8
- P313:27Thomas Harley Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (13), Ryan Suter (6)1–7
- P214:23Jason Robertson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (12), Roope Hintz (12)1–6
- P212:25Joe Pavelski Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (3), Roope Hintz (11)1–5
- P23:42Mason Marchment Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (2), Esa Lindell (6)1–4
- P112:25Victor Hedman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (25)1–3
- P17:39Jamie Benn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8), Jani Hakanpää (1)0–3
- P16:28Jason Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (12)0–2
- P11:01Tyler Seguin Goal (8) Batted, assists: Mason Marchment (8), Miro Heiskanen (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:01Tyler Seguin Goal (8) Batted, assists: Mason Marchment (8), Miro Heiskanen (13)TB 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 69% +14DAL 56% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:28Jason Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (12)TB 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 70% → 82% +12DAL 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P17:39Jamie Benn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8), Jani Hakanpää (1)TB 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 82% → 90% +8DAL 82% → 90%+8 pts
- P112:25Victor Hedman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (25)TB 1 – 3 DAL · TB 9% → 17% +8TB 9% → 17%+8 pts
- P23:42Mason Marchment Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (2), Esa Lindell (6)TB 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 85% → 94% +8DAL 85% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -125
- TB +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +55 Elo | DAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%9th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314–7 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.