Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Jeff CarterGoals1
- Matt NietoAssists1
- Jeff CarterPoints1
Lightning- Tanner JeannotGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:52Tristan Jarry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P32:49Jeff Carter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Nieto (3), Marcus Pettersson (5)3–2
- P219:24Drew O'Connor Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evgeni Malkin (10), Kris Letang (11)2–2
- P28:53Sidney Crosby Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (18)1–2
- P112:33Tanner Jeannot Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (14), Nikita Kucherov (24)0–2
- P19:06Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (20), Nikita Kucherov (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:06Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (20), Nikita Kucherov (23)PIT 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 70% +15TB 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P112:33Tanner Jeannot Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (14), Nikita Kucherov (24)PIT 0 – 2 TB · TB 70% → 82% +13TB 70% → 82%+13 pts
- P28:53Sidney Crosby Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (18)PIT 1 – 2 TB · PIT 13% → 28% +14PIT 13% → 28%+14 pts
- P219:24Drew O'Connor Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evgeni Malkin (10), Kris Letang (11)PIT 2 – 2 TB · PIT 24% → 47% +23PIT 24% → 47%+23 pts
- P32:49Jeff Carter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Nieto (3), Marcus Pettersson (5)PIT 3 – 2 TB · PIT 47% → 73% +26PIT 47% → 73%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Road vs home | 6–513th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.