Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Anthony CirelliPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:12Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none0–4
- P33:05Luke Glendening Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none0–3
- P118:21Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (5), Nikita Kucherov (26)0–2
- P17:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (15), Steven Stamkos (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (15), Steven Stamkos (15)DAL 0 – 1 TB · TB 53% → 68% +15TB 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P118:21Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (5), Nikita Kucherov (26)DAL 0 – 2 TB · TB 70% → 83% +13TB 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P33:05Luke Glendening Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 0 – 3 TB · TB 92% → 98% +6TB 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P312:12Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 0 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Fair odds
- TB -115
- DAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −17 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +18 Elo | DAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.0% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–3 | Road vs home | 6–613th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.