Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Thomas HarleyGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals2
- Evan RodriguesAssists2
- Evan RodriguesPoints4
Scoring summary
- P312:26Thomas Harley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (9), Matt Duchene (13)4–5
- P38:00Evan Rodrigues Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (7), Aaron Ekblad (3)3–5
- P34:52Aleksander Barkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (15), Evan Rodrigues (14)3–4
- P34:15Evgenii Dadonov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (3), Wyatt Johnston (9)3–3
- P30:39Mason Marchment Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (12), Miro Heiskanen (14)2–3
- P20:24Carter Verhaeghe Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Niko Mikkola (7)1–3
- P118:14Sam Reinhart Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (16), Evan Rodrigues (13)1–2
- P113:42Radek Faksa Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (2), Thomas Harley (4)1–1
- P14:39Evan Rodrigues Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (6), Sam Reinhart (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:42Radek Faksa Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (2), Thomas Harley (4)DAL 1 – 1 FLA · DAL 30% → 45% +16DAL 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P118:14Sam Reinhart Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (16), Evan Rodrigues (13)DAL 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 54% → 71% +16FLA 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P30:39Mason Marchment Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (12), Miro Heiskanen (14)DAL 2 – 3 FLA · DAL 9% → 24% +15DAL 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P34:15Evgenii Dadonov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Hakanpää (3), Wyatt Johnston (9)DAL 3 – 3 FLA · DAL 22% → 47% +26DAL 22% → 47%+26 pts
- P34:52Aleksander Barkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (15), Evan Rodrigues (14)DAL 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 53% → 79% +26FLA 53% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Fair odds
- FLA -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +11 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +42 Elo | FLA 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.1% | Shot share | 55.3%3rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%9th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–4 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.