New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:10Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (9), Erik Brannstrom (2)2–6
- P217:43Brady Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (5), Erik Brannstrom (1)2–5
- P27:18Drake Batherson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (12)2–4
- P25:35K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (8), Artemi Panarin (21)2–3
- P25:13Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (8), Tim Stützle (19)1–3
- P20:39Artemi Panarin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (13), Mika Zibanejad (14)1–2
- P118:34Claude Giroux Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (3), Josh Norris (6)0–2
- P111:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (4), Claude Giroux (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (4), Claude Giroux (12)NYR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 69% +15OTT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P20:39Artemi Panarin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (13), Mika Zibanejad (14)NYR 1 – 2 OTT · NYR 16% → 30% +13NYR 16% → 30%+13 pts
- P25:13Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (8), Tim Stützle (19)NYR 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 71% → 85% +14OTT 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P25:35K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (8), Artemi Panarin (21)NYR 2 – 3 OTT · NYR 15% → 29% +14NYR 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P27:18Drake Batherson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (12)NYR 2 – 4 OTT · OTT 72% → 86% +14OTT 72% → 86%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +10 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +9 Elo | OTT 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.7% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3110–3 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.