Seattle Kraken at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Senators- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Mathieu JosephPoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:37Drake Batherson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (18), Vladimir Tarasenko (11)0–2
- P117:21Mathieu Joseph Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:21Mathieu Joseph Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 51% → 68% +17OTT 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P213:37Drake Batherson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (18), Vladimir Tarasenko (11)SEA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 72% → 87% +15OTT 72% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Fair odds
- OTT -105
- SEA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.1 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +23 Elo | OTT 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.4%10th of 31 |
| 25th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 24th of 314–8 | Road vs home | 4–726th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.