Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Bobby BrinkAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Avalanche- Josh MansonGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Josh MansonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:17Joel Farabee Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (9), Travis Sanheim (17)5–2
- P39:31Travis Konecny Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P212:28Josh Manson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johansen (2)3–2
- P211:17Travis Sanheim Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Owen Tippett (8)3–1
- P29:01Owen Tippett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (8)2–1
- P118:59Nathan MacKinnon Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (4), Devon Toews (11)1–1
- P117:41Travis Konecny Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (13), Tyson Foerster (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:41Travis Konecny Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (13), Tyson Foerster (6)PHI 1 – 0 COL · PHI 45% → 62% +17PHI 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P118:59Nathan MacKinnon Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (4), Devon Toews (11)PHI 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 55% +17COL 37% → 55%+17 pts
- P29:01Owen Tippett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (8)PHI 2 – 1 COL · PHI 46% → 66% +20PHI 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P211:17Travis Sanheim Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Owen Tippett (8)PHI 3 – 1 COL · PHI 67% → 83% +16PHI 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P212:28Josh Manson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johansen (2)PHI 3 – 2 COL · COL 16% → 33% +17COL 16% → 33%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Fair odds
- COL -125
- PHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +53 Elo | COL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.0% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%17th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 9th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.