Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints2
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sean Couturier Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P319:39Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (9), Evgeni Malkin (11)3–3
- P313:52Tyson Foerster Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (6), Sean Couturier (11)3–2
- P37:01Scott Laughton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (6)2–2
- P31:50Jake Guentzel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (13), Bryan Rust (8)1–2
- P216:47Owen Tippett Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Tyson Foerster (5)1–1
- P214:31Kris Letang Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:47Owen Tippett Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Tyson Foerster (5)PHI 1 – 1 PIT · PHI 25% → 47% +22PHI 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P31:50Jake Guentzel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (13), Bryan Rust (8)PHI 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 53% → 77% +24PIT 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P37:01Scott Laughton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (6)PHI 2 – 2 PIT · PHI 20% → 48% +28PHI 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P313:52Tyson Foerster Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (6), Sean Couturier (11)PHI 3 – 2 PIT · PHI 48% → 86% +38PHI 48% → 86%+38 pts
- P319:39Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (9), Evgeni Malkin (11)PHI 3 – 3 PIT · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +44 Elo | PIT 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 12th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 92.3%3rd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.