Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:55Sean Couturier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (7), Travis Sanheim (15)1–2
- P29:46Tyson Foerster Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (6), Rasmus Ristolainen (1)1–1
- P119:14Sidney Crosby Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (19), Bryan Rust (10)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:14Sidney Crosby Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (19), Bryan Rust (10)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 46% → 63% +17PIT 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P29:46Tyson Foerster Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (6), Rasmus Ristolainen (1)PIT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 34% → 54% +20PHI 34% → 54%+20 pts
- OT3:55Sean Couturier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (7), Travis Sanheim (15)PIT 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 51% → >99% +49PHI 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +32 Elo | PHI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 12th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 5–722nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.