Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Kyle Connor Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P219:29Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (26), Bowen Byram (4)3–2
- P215:13Josh Morrissey Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (7), Nino Niederreiter (9)3–1
- P22:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Devon Toews (10), Sam Malinski (1)2–1
- P20:32Kyle Connor Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (8), Josh Morrissey (17)2–0
- P119:57Adam Lowry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:57Adam Lowry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (1)WPG 1 – 0 COL · WPG 46% → 63% +18WPG 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P20:32Kyle Connor Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (8), Josh Morrissey (17)WPG 2 – 0 COL · WPG 63% → 79% +15WPG 63% → 79%+15 pts
- P22:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Devon Toews (10), Sam Malinski (1)WPG 2 – 1 COL · COL 21% → 36% +15COL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P215:13Josh Morrissey Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (7), Nino Niederreiter (9)WPG 3 – 1 COL · WPG 69% → 85% +17WPG 69% → 85%+17 pts
- P219:29Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (26), Bowen Byram (4)WPG 3 – 2 COL · COL 12% → 29% +17COL 12% → 29%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Fair odds
- COL -123
- WPG +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +40 Elo | COL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 52.2%10th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 10th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 9–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.